Dealing with uncertainty in hydrological studies – September 9, 2014

Dealing with uncertainty in hydrologic studies and its application to the Brisbane River Catchment Flood Studies

In developing flood risk management plans and implementation programs, the analysis and modelling of flood events is a foundational technical task. In the Brisbane River Catchment area how is this analysis best undertaken and how is that information best integrated into the forthcoming flood management studies? At this forum, attendees were updated on the suite of Brisbane River Catchment Flood studies that are underway.

Ferdinand Diermanse

Senior consultant/researcher – Deltares

Dealing with uncertainty in hydrologic studies

As part of the Brisbane River Catchment Flood Studies, Ferdinand is providing a specialist statistical analysis for the study team.  In this presentation he will:

  • Identify the added value of statistical and probabilistic methods in flood risk management studies
  • Outline the methodology selected for this hydrological analysis of flood flows in the Brisbane River catchment;
  • Discuss ways to reconcile the Flood Frequency analysis with a Monte Carlo analysis;
  • Highlight how aspects of “uncertainty” can be better described by these various techniques.

Ferdinand is a mathematician with a PhD in hydrology.  His expertise is in statistics, probabilistic modelling and hydrological modelling which he has utilised in flood risk analysis and flood risk management projects.  He has evaluated flood hazards and flood risk in a range of water systems in the Netherlands, Egypt, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, Hong Kong, South Sudan and at last Australia!!  Ferdinand has a refreshing approach to explaining complex statistical techniques.

Ferdinands’s powerpoint presentation

Video Part 1
Video Part 2

Con de Groot

Project Director – Brisbane River Catchment Flood Studies – Department of State Development Infrastructure and Planning

Overview of the current and forthcoming Flood Studies

Con co-ordinates the efforts and various studies across a range of State Government agencies and local government partners that will culminate in the preparation of a Brisbane River Catchment Floodplain Management Plan. Con will outline the various steps that have been planned and aspects of the focus of each study.

Con is an experienced civil  engineer with a wide range of experience across private sector, state and local government, which has included senior roles in various land development planning and implementation programs at the State Urban Land Development Authority and also in various private sector land development engineering roles.

If you would like to request a copy of this talk or extracts please contact Con on